Economic News

Friday, April 24, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 100.87 +22 bps

This week brings a heavy slate of market movers.

Core PCE (March) takes center stage as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, alongside the first read on Q1 2026 GDP; both critical for rate direction. Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, manufacturing data, housing, and jobless claims will provide a full read on economic momentum.

The Fed meets Wednesday, with focus on tone rather than action. Markets will be listening closely for any shift in messaging.

Treasury auctions in the 2s, 5s, and 7s will also matter; strong demand supports rates, while weak demand could push yields higher.

Next Fed meeting (April 29th) is 1.10% chance to raise 0.25%..
New Fed Chair Announced (May) – Kevin Warsh confirmation hearings next week.

Economic Calendar

Tuesday – Consumer Confidence Index

Measures how consumers feel about the economy.

When confidence is high:
• Consumers spend more
• Demand increases
• Inflation pressure builds
• Rates may move higher

When confidence drops:
• Spending slows
• Economic pressure eases
• Rates may improve slightly

Wednesday – Pending Home Sales
This is a forward-looking indicator of housing demand.

It tells us:
• Are buyers stepping in?
• Are contracts being written?
Strong numbers:
• Demand is still there
• Prices may remain supported
Weak numbers:
• Buyers are hesitating
• Affordability is impacting decisions

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims
This gives us a real-time look at the labor market.

Higher claims:
• Job market softening
• Less inflation pressure
• Rates may improve
Lower claims:
• Strong employment
• Continued spending
• Rates may rise

Friday – PCE Inflation Index (KEY REPORT)
This is the most important report of the week.
It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.

If inflation comes in hot:
• Mortgage rates may rise quickly
If inflation cools:
• We may see rate relief

RATE IMPACT EXPLANATION
Mortgage rates are driven by:

• Inflation expectations
• Economic strength
• Bond market investor demand

NOT directly by Fed announcements.
The Fed reacts to data—markets move ahead of it.