Economic News

Friday, March 13, 2026

Static Quote FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 100.55 -10 bps

The primary focus next week will be the Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are not expecting a rate cut, but investors will be listening closely for signals about the Fed’s outlook for inflation and the path of monetary policy.

There is also growing concern that the recent spike in oil prices could push inflation higher in the near term. Energy costs tend to ripple through the economy, influencing transportation, production, and consumer prices. If markets begin to believe inflation will reaccelerate, it could keep upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

Remember: the bond market is forward-looking. It will begin pricing tomorrow’s inflation risks well before they appear in the official data.

Next Fed move of 0.25% presently stands at 0.00% for March 18th.
New Fed Chair Announced (May) – Kevin Warsh

Economic Calendar

MONDAY
Retail Sales
Retail sales show how strongly consumers are spending. Since consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy, strong numbers can signal economic momentum and potentially keep inflation elevated.

Higher inflation expectations can place upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Empire State Manufacturing Index
Manufacturing sentiment often gives an early signal of economic expansion or contraction.

TUESDAY
Housing Starts and Building Permits
These numbers measure how many new homes are beginning construction.

Higher housing starts can signal improving supply, which is something the housing market needs as inventory slowly increases nationwide.

Import Price Index
Industrial Production
These reports provide insight into inflation pressures tied to manufacturing and global trade.

WEDNESDAY
Federal Reserve Policy Commentary
While there may not be a formal rate decision this week, markets often react strongly to speeches and statements from Federal Reserve officials.

The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates.
But Fed policy influences inflation expectations and bond markets — which do.

THURSDAY
Initial Jobless Claims
Labor market strength remains one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve.

A strong job market supports consumer spending, but it can also contribute to inflation pressure.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Another indicator of economic activity in the industrial sector.

FRIDAY
Existing Home Sales
This is a key report for the housing market.
It tells us how active buyers and sellers currently are.

When combined with inventory levels and mortgage rates, it helps define the overall direction of the housing market entering the spring season.