Economic News

Monday, June 15, 2026

Static Quote FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 100.30 +15 bps

There are several economic reports on the calendar that could influence trading in the week ahead, but the main event will undoubtedly be the June Federal Reserve meeting; the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets will be listening carefully not only for policy decisions but also for clues regarding potential changes to how the Federal Reserve communicates with investors. Warsh has previously expressed interest in reducing the Fed’s reliance on forward guidance and limiting the amount of ongoing Fed commentary that influences markets.

Investors will also be watching for discussion surrounding Quantitative Tightening (QT), which remains one of the Fed’s primary tools for extinguishing inflation pressures. In addition, there could be changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), a report that has become a major driver of market expectations over the years.

Whether these changes arrive immediately or are simply discussed as future possibilities, this meeting could provide important insight into how the Fed operates under its new leadership.

As always, we’ll be watching closely and keeping you informed every step of the way.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 2.90% chance of 0.25% lower at June 17th meeting.

Economic Calendar

This week is expected to be one of the most influential weeks of the month for financial markets, mortgage rates, and housing. The spotlight will be on the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, along with key reports on retail spending, housing activity, manufacturing, and the labor market. Financial markets will also observe the Juneteenth holiday on Friday.

Monday – June 15

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (May) – 9:15 AM ET
A measure of manufacturing output and how fully factories are operating. Stronger-than-expected results could indicate a stronger economy and place upward pressure on mortgage rates.

NAHB Housing Market Index – 10:00 AM ET
This report measures homebuilder confidence and provides insight into future residential construction activity. It is a key indicator for the housing market.

Tuesday – June 16

Import & Export Price Indexes – 8:30 AM ET
Measures inflation through the prices of goods entering and leaving the United States. Markets watch this report for signs of inflationary pressure.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30 AM ET
An early look at manufacturing conditions in the Northeast, often viewed as a leading indicator for national manufacturing trends.

Housing Starts & Building Permits – 8:30 AM ET
One of the housing market’s most important monthly reports. It measures new residential construction and permits for future building activity, providing insight into housing supply.

Wednesday – June 17

Retail Sales (May) – 8:30 AM ET
One of the week’s biggest reports. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of the U.S. economy, making this report a major driver of market expectations.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – 2:00 PM ET
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave short-term interest rates unchanged. Investors will focus on the policy statement and any changes to the economic outlook.

Federal Reserve Press Conference – 2:30 PM ET
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will discuss inflation, employment, economic growth, and future monetary policy. His comments are expected to be the week’s biggest market-moving event and could significantly impact Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

Thursday – June 18

Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 AM ET
The weekly report on new unemployment claims provides an up-to-date snapshot of labor market conditions. Unexpected changes can influence bond and mortgage markets,

Friday – June 19

Juneteenth National Independence Day

U.S. stock markets and bond markets will be closed in observance of the federal holiday. No major economic reports are scheduled.