Economic News

Friday, October 31, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 6.50% MBS 101.62 +9 bps

Next week brings a heavy dose of economic news that could have a meaningful impact on interest rates.

The high impact event include:

ADP Employment Report: An early look at private-sector job creation and the strength of the labor market.

Jobs Report: The headline employment report, including job growth, unemployment, and wage trends. This could be the most influential report of the week.

ISM Manufacturing and Services: Important readings on business activity, employment, and price pressures across the economy.

Fed Speak: Several Fed officials will have opportunities to share their views on the economy, inflation, and the potential path of interest rates.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 69.80% chance of 0.25% raise at December 9th meeting.

U.S. Economic Calendar

All times are Eastern Time (ET).

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2
10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)
Measures activity across the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Mortgage-market relevance: Business activity, new orders, employment, and prices can influence expectations for economic growth and inflation.

10:00 AM — Construction Spending (September)
Measures public and private construction activity.
Mortgage-market relevance: Provides insight into construction activity and housing-related investment.

2:00 PM — Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)
Reports on bank lending standards and loan demand.
Mortgage-market relevance: Provides context on credit availability and lending conditions, although it is not a direct measure of mortgage rates.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3
10:00 AM — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), September
Reports job openings, hires, and separations.
Mortgage-market relevance: Provides additional insight into labor demand and the balance between available jobs and workers.

10:00 AM — Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (September)
Reports manufacturing orders, shipments, and inventory activity.
Mortgage-market relevance: Provides additional information about business demand and economic momentum.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4
8:30 AM — U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (September)
Reports exports and imports of goods and services.
Mortgage-market relevance: Trade activity contributes to the broader assessment of economic growth.

10:00 AM — ISM Services PMI (October)
Measures business activity across the services sector.
Mortgage-market relevance: Services-sector activity, employment, and prices can influence expectations for growth and inflation.

THUSDAY, NOVEMBER 5
8:30 AM — Productivity and Costs, Third Quarter (Preliminary)
Measures worker productivity and labor costs.
Mortgage-market relevance: Productivity and labor-cost trends can affect inflation expectations and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims
Provides a weekly snapshot of new applications for unemployment benefits.
Mortgage-market relevance: Unexpected changes may influence views on labor-market strength.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6
8:30 AM — Employment Situation (October)
Includes nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and average weekly hours.
Mortgage-market relevance: Employment growth and wage trends are important inputs for assessing economic momentum, inflation pressures, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

3:00 PM — Federal Reserve Consumer Credit (September)
Reports outstanding consumer credit.
Mortgage-market relevance: Provides context on household borrowing and credit conditions. Its direct market impact is generally less significant than the monthly employment report.