Economic News

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Friday Market Close FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 98.81 -7 bps

Markets will be closed Monday in observance of Labor Day, giving us a shortened but jammed packed trading week.

Inflation will take center stage with both CPI and PPI on tap. These reports could be big market movers, particularly after Mr. Kevin Warsh indicated that the Fed is more focused on inflation.

We’ll also have multiple Treasury auctions, including longer-duration supply in 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds. With yields already elevated, demand for this new supply will be something to watch closely.

One thing we won’t hear is a lot of Fed chatter. Federal Reserve officials have entered their blackout or quiet period ahead of the next Fed meeting on September 16. That means the incoming economic data will largely have to speak for itself.

Finally, we’ll be watching for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Treasury buyback program, expected to begin September 8. This bond buying is only a drop in the bucket for what is an enormous bond market, so we do not know how rates will react once this begins.

Between inflation, Treasury supply, oil prices and a global bond market under pressure, there will be plenty for the markets to digest.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 57.90% chance of 0.25% raise at September 16th meeting.

Economic Calendar

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
September 7–11, 2026

Monday, September 7
No events scheduled

Tuesday, September 8
6:00 AM — NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
3:00 PM — Consumer Credit

Wednesday, September 9
No events scheduled

Thursday, September 10
8:30 AM — Weekly Jobless Claims
8:30 AM — PPI
8:30 AM — Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M%
8:30 AM — PPI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM — Monthly Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales

Friday, September 11
8:30 AM — CPI
8:30 AM — Core CPI, M/M%
8:30 AM — CPI, Y/Y%
8:30 AM — CPI Core, Y/Y%
10:00 AM — U. Michigan Prelim Consumer Survey
2:00 PM — Monthly Treasury Balance