Economic News

Friday, July 10, 2026

Static Quote FNMA 30-year 5.50% MBS 100.07 -8 bps

Next week will be one of the busiest economic calendars of the summer, giving investors several opportunities to reassess the outlook for inflation, economic growth, and mortgage rates.

The week’s marquee event will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, followed by the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

While prepared remarks are typically released in advance, the real market-moving moments often come during the question-and-answer session. Investors will be listening for comments on inflation, energy prices, tariffs, labor markets, and most importantly, whether the Fed’s outlook for interest rates has changed. With the Fed intentionally providing less forward guidance than in previous years, every answer will be scrutinized.

Tuesday also brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the market’s most closely watched inflation report. Any meaningful surprise could quickly move Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

Later in the week, we’ll receive the Producer Price Index (PPI), offering another look at inflation from the wholesale level and whether businesses continue to experience pricing pressure.

The latest Retail Sales report will provide insight into the health of the American consumer. Since consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, this report remains one of the best gauges of overall economic momentum.

Housing returns to the spotlight with fresh reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits. Investors will be watching to see whether higher mortgage rates continue to slow construction activity or if builders are beginning to adjust to today’s rate environment.

We’ll also receive updated manufacturing data, providing another snapshot of business activity. Manufacturing has been one of the softer areas of the economy over the past year, making these reports an important indicator of future growth.

By week’s end, markets should have a much clearer picture of where inflation, consumer spending, housing, and manufacturing stand. Combined with Chairman Warsh’s testimony, the data has the potential to set the tone for both the bond market and mortgage rates as we move deeper into the summer.

Fed Fund futures are showing a 25.50% chance of 0.25% raise at July 29th meeting.

Economic Calendar

Monday, July 13
There are no major scheduled federal economic releases on Monday.
However, this type of day is important because financial markets use it to reposition ahead of inflation data and labor market reports later in the week.
Mortgage rates may still move, but typically on expectations rather than new data.

Tuesday, July 14
Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index.

This is one of the most important inflation reports of the entire month.
It measures the change in prices consumers pay for goods and services.
If inflation is higher than expected, bond yields often rise, which can push mortgage rates higher.
If inflation is lower than expected, bond markets often improve, which can support lower mortgage rates.
Inflation is one of the strongest long-term drivers of housing affordability.

Wednesday, July 15
Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book if released on schedule.

Producer Price Index measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers.
Industrial production reflects the strength of manufacturing and industrial output.
Capacity utilization shows how close the economy is operating to full production capacity.
The Federal Reserve – Beige Book provides regional economic insights that help guide future monetary policy decisions.

Thursday, July 16
Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Import Prices, Export Prices, and Business Inventories.

Retail sales provide insight into consumer spending strength.
Jobless claims are one of the timeliest indicators of labor market health.
Import and export prices help measure inflation pressures from global trade.
Business inventories help indicate whether supply and demand are in balance.
Strong consumer spending can support economic growth but may also increase inflation pressure.

Friday, July 17
Housing Starts, Building Permits, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Inflation Expectations.

Housing Starts and Building Permits measure future housing supply.
Consumer sentiment reflects how confident households feel about the economy.
Inflation expectations are especially important because they influence long-term interest rates.
If consumers expect higher inflation, long-term rates often rise in anticipation.