May 26, 2023 – Economic News

• May 26, 2023
• realestatelife
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

MBS OVERVIEW

Rosie the Riveter: April Headline Durable Good Orders were up 1.1% vs. est. of -1.0%. Ex Transportation, they were down -0.2% vs. est. of -0.1%. Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders Ex-Aircraft was up 1.4% vs. est. of -0.2%.

Inflation Nation: The Fed’s Key measure of Inflation, Core PCE (which is PCE ex food and energy) increased vs. the Fed’s goal of decreasing it. MOM, Core PCE increased by 0.4% vs. est. of 0.3% and YOY it was up 4.7% vs. est. of 4.6%. The headline PCE was up 0.4% on a MOM basis which matched forecasts and YOY it was up 4.4% vs. est. of 3.9%.

Incomes and Spending: April Personal Incomes improved by 0.4% which matched forecasts but Personal Spending shot up 0.8% which was double the expectations of 0.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The final May UofM Consumer Sentiment Index saw an upward revision to the preliminary release of 57.7 to 59.2. The one year inflation number dropped from 4.5% to 4.2% and the 5 year lookout was 3.1% vs. the last reading of 3.2%

A short day for interest rates, the equity market went all day. The 10 ended down 2 bps but MBSs ended slightly lower. Stock indexes on another roll today. The debt ceiling is closer to a deal, although it won’t be until Tuesday that a completed debt increase can be voted on in the House and Senate. The inflation in April increased, while there was no reaction to it, traders won’t overlook it next week; the core year/year PCE expected +4.6% increased 4.7% and April personal spending increased 0.8% against estimates of 0.4%.

Next Week: Markets Closed Monday. Tuesday March FRHMA and Case/Shiller home price indexes, May consumer sentiment index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, May Chicago purchasing mgrs. index, April JOLTS job openings, Fed beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q1 productivity and unit labor costs, May ISM manufacturing index, April construction spending. Friday May employment data.

This Week: The 10 year note yield increased 11 bp, MBS prices declined 86 bps. The DJIA -334, NASDAQ _317, S&P +13. Crude oil increased $1.05, gold declined $33.00. The dollar strong all week, the index increased from 103.25 to 104.22. Bitcoin -$0.0041.