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Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 April Coupon is up +0 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The March Challenger Job Cuts saw an uptick to 89,703 vs. Feb’s pace of 77,770. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected, up 228K vs. est. of 200K, however the more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 237,750 after all of the massive revisions. Continuing Claims shot up to 1.823M which had been trending just below 1.700M.
On Deck for Tomorrow: Big Jobs Friday! Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, U6 Underemployment, Average Hourly Earnings, Labor Force Participation Rate, ****Bond Market Early Close for Good Friday****
JOLTS job openings declined quite a lot on Tuesday, The March ISM service sector continues to slow, almost turning negative, under 50, (51.2). Yesterday ADP reported less job growth than markets were expecting.
Today, James Bullard, St. Louis Fed; “Financial stress seems to be abated, at “I think inflation’s going to be sticky going forward and it’s going to be hard to get inflation back down to the 2% target,” he said during the event. “So we’re going to have to stay at it .”least for now,”…“And so it’s a good moment to continue to fight inflation and try to get on that disinflationary path.” He’s the hawk, but a non-voter at the FOMC, doesn’t think tighter credit conditions stemming from the recent banking turmoil will be substantial enough to tip the US economy into recession, noting that demand for loans is still strong. He compares today to the financial crisis in 2008 and said it isn’t that bad these days; like comparing a tornado to a thunderstorm. In 2008 the financial crisis almost dragged the global financial system under. “I do think we should continue to pursue our interest rate path and make sure that we get the disinflation to occur in 2023 and 2024 so that we put the inflation problem behind us while the labor market is still strong,”… “I think inflation’s going to be sticky going forward and it’s going to be hard to get inflation back down to the 2% target,” he said during the event. “So we’re going to have to stay at it.”
Bullard didn’t address the declining employment sector, the issue that hanks over markets presently. Tomorrow March employment, job growth expected to slow but unemployment remains at 3.6%. year/year annual ages expected to decline.
The IMF isn’t as optimistic as Bullard, no one really is. IMF warning the global outlook over the next five years is weakest in the decades. Its estimate, growth about 3.0% over the next five years. That’s the lowest medium-term growth forecast since 1990 and less than the five-year average of 3.8% from the past two decades. This year IMF saying global GDP will be less than 3.0, In January its estimate, 2.9%. The IMF will release a more detailed World Economic Outlook report on April 11 as part of its Spring Meetings held together with the World Bank.
