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August 31, 2023 – Rate Commentary

Rate sheets this morning likely to be a bit worse than yesterday, and loans are facing a decision of whether to lock or float ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data. Reprice risk today is low, not much to worry about. The outlook today is much brighter than a week ago, with the door open to see the best rates in over a month if we can get a lucky reaction tomorrow, and that is looking a lot more likely than it did.

Lock or float?

Today’s the day to decide, and here’s how I see it…

If the client is happy with the best rates we’ve seen in a few weeks and doesn’t want to risk losing it, lock it.

If the client wants to gamble to pick up what may be as much as another .25% in rate or the equivalent in pricing of about a point, float it.

Technicals:

The UMBS 6.0 coupon is at 100.18, a bit off from yesterday around this time because of some late day losses yesterday, but still up about +2bps on the day.

The 10yr Treasury yield at 4.10, holding steady.

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