• November 15, 2022
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Monetary policy has a lag. Just because we get an inflation report that indicates we have turned the corner does not mean the journey is close to an end.  I believe Powell has that “old-time inflation religion.” But there are several paths to his goal. One is the band aid approach of 75 basis points

• November 12, 2022
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“The CPI news on Thursday caused the largest single-day bond rally I have ever seen in my career, as the 10-year bond yield fell a stunning 33 basis points (down to 3.81%). What was that CPI news? “The headline rate year over year was +7.7% whereas in September it was +8.2%. “The core rate was

• November 13, 2022
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By: Matthew Graham Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two key inflation reports in the US.  PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the other big index, but because CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier, it gets almost all

• November 10, 2022
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Inflation continued to run near a multi-decade high in October as persistent prices squeezed millions of U.S. households and small businesses. The Labor Department said Thursday that the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 0.4% in October from the previous month. Prices climbed

• December 19, 2022
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Owning a home is part of the American Dream, and as a mortgage lender, United Mortgage Corporation of America, we are motivated to do everything possible to make sure Americans of all ethnic, educational and professional backgrounds can qualify for a mortgage. Some borrowers may use an Individual Tax Identification Number (ITIN) instead of a

• November 8, 2022
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Hiring in the U.S. remained solid in October, presenting challenges for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. Employers added 261,000 nonfarm jobs, more than expected and in line with the previous month’s 263,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 3.7%, up from 3.5% in September. Hourly pay remained brisk rising at 4.7% year over year, matching

• November 7, 2022
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Powell doesn’t see wage-price spiral or evidence of softening in labor market Fed Chair Jerome Powell says it will take some time for inflation to come down. Powell said the labor market remains out of balance with demand exceeding supply and households still having cash saved up from the COVID-19 pandemic. “The broader picture is

• October 30, 2022
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U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in September, while underlying inflation pressures continued to bubble, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department

• October 27, 2022
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The U.S. economy rebounded over the summer after shrinking for the first six months of the year, but the rebound does little to allay fears that the world’s largest economy is headed toward a recession as it confronts painfully high inflation and rising interest rates. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services

• November 4, 2022
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The average mortgage rate should be around 6% today and not 7% if the normal spread is applied. A monthly mortgage payment of $1,799 versus $1,996 on a $300,000 loan. Historically the spread between 10-year Treasury bond yields and 30-year mortgage is 170 basis points. Today it is over 300 basis points. The only other