• December 25, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Pricing this morning similar to yesterday, no reason to worry about reprices. Mixed data this morning, but the PCE inflation came in slightly better than was forecast. However, trading volumes are so low it’s not like we are going to see any kind of rally on the news. Bond market closes at 2pm today, and

• December 21, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets today once again similar to yesterday, and reprice risk on the day is low. Markets are seeing low trading volume, as expected, with many traders taking the end of year off. Tomorrow morning we get the PCE inflation data, the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation. Normally I’d say I don’t expect it to

• December 19, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

UMBS 5.5 100.23 (+5bps)10yr yield 3.93 Another quiet day as expected. Once again, although there is little urgency to locking, there is little expected benefit to floating. I’d consider locking any loans that are within 30 days of closing simply for peace of mind. We aren’t likely to see any bigger moves until January’s labor

• December 18, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets today may be a bit worse than Friday but shouldn’t be much… however, we are seeing definite signs that this rally has stalled. Reprice risk on the day is low, nothing on the economic calendar or in the headlines that should shake things up. Markets are shrugging off cautionary comments made by Fed

• December 17, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets today either similar or just slightly worse than yesterday, and reprice risk on the day is moderate. The tea leaves are pointing to this rally being at the end of its leash for now, and I stand by yesterday’s suggestion to lock any loans that are closing in the next 30 days or

• December 14, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Christmas came early for rate sheets today, with the best pricing we’ve seen in months. Base conventional conforming rates breaking below 7% (national rate avg using Mortgage News Daily as a reference point) after yesterday’s Fed meeting delivered. Reprice risk today is moderate, bonds started out really strong but lost ground early on strong retail

• December 13, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 101.45 (+66 bps)10yr yield 4.02 Despite labor market and inflation data, the Fed gave its clearest signal yet that it is done hiking rates, with Powell saying as much (but still leaving himself an out). Markets now pricing in 65% chance of cut in March, helping rates improve. Tough to expect more improvement

• December 12, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning should be similar or just a smidge better than yesterday, as this morning’s inflation data comes in exactly at expectations. However, coming in at expectations is not enough to spark a rally and see better pricing. Reprice risk on the day is low, bonds aren’t likely to start selling off, but

• December 11, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will be similar to Friday and maybe a bit better for some. Reprice risk on the day is low, although we will see a 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm Eastern today. It is tomorrow’s CPI inflation data and Wednesday’s Fed meeting that will decide the near future of rates. The outlook

• December 9, 2023
• no comment
• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 100.72 (-13bps)10yr yield 4.23 Although this mornings jobs data was a bust for better rates, it didn’t hurt things much. There is still hope that next weeks inflation data and Fed meeting could see rates move a bit lower, but this is the first sign that we may see this rally losing steam.