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Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is down -36 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary February UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was low but it was higher than expected (66.4 vs. est. 65.0). The one year inflation expectations rose from 3.9% to 4.2%
The Talking Fed: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the odds of the Federal Reserve being able to control inflation without triggering a recession are growing, but that the key interest rate must get above 5% and stay there to ensure price pressures ease.
Across the Pond:
Great Britain: Q4 GDP 0.4 vs. est. of 0.4
Canada: Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs. est. of 5.1%
Interest rates increased at the long end of the yield curve today after yesterday’s increase on the 10 year note broke a long-term trend line that goes back to last October. MBS prices fell, most lenders repriced from morning initial pricing. Fundamentally long dated risk hit by supply cuts to recovering Chinese demand, tightening oil markets are firing up oil bulls — threatening to stoke inflation. Russia to cut 5% of its output reigniting fears of inflation inching higher. Meanwhile OPEC+ saying it doesn’t see any increases in output now, set on holding output steady for the rest of the year, as demand remains too fragile to absorb additional barrels. China’s demand is increasing now that the COVID lockdowns are over. “The Russian cut is very bullish, the Chinese reopening is very bullish, the balances will tighten in the second half, and we’ll have very low stockpiles,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “The price is too low.” On the surprise cut from Russia the chatter was crude may hit $100.00 later this year.
We have long warned the outlook for inflation may be too reticent in the markets,next Tuesday January CPI will be reported, don’t have forecasts yet but if inflation were to increase even a little over the consensus estimates the long end of the curve will increase as will mortgage rates; after falling to 6.00% 30 year mortgages now at 6.50%.
Next Week: This week had little economic data, next week has a handful. Tuesday Jan CPI. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps, Jan retail sales, Empire State manufacturing index, Jan industrial production and factory usage, Dec business inventories, Feb NAHB housing market index. Thursday Jan housing starts and permits, Jan PPI, weekly jobless claims, Feb Philadelphia Fed business index. Friday Jan export and import prices, Jan leading economic indicators.
This Week: 10 note yield increased 20 bps, the 2 year note increased 20 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon price declined 100 bps. The DJIA -67, NASDAQ -289, S&P -46. Gold this week -$5.00, not bad with the dollar strength. Crude oil increased $6.50 to $80.00/barrel. The dollar had a good week, the dollar index increased 0.61, Bitcoin dropped 1,586 this week.
