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Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is up +8 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Rosie the Riveter: January headline Durable Goods Orders were weaker than expected, -4.5% vs. est. of -4.0% but ex Transportation, they were much stronger than expected, 0.7% vs. est. of 0.1%. Non Defense Cap Ex Aircraft were 0.8% vs. est. of 0.0%. The February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index showed continued contraction, dropping down to -13.5
Taking it to the House: The January Pending Home Sales Index increased to a index reading of 82.5 which is a MOM increase of 8.1%. YOY, it dropped by -24.1%
On Deck for Tomorrow: Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, Case Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Housing Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
Quiet today, very little movement in rates after a little volatility early this morning when the 10 year increased to 3.97% at about 8 am ET. From then until now the rate markets slowed into a tight range through the session. MBS prices at 9:30 am +14 bps but edged slightly lower into 4 PM. Stock indexes began with nice improvements (DJIA +205, NASDAQ +130, S&P +33 on the 9:30 am open).
January pending home sales were stronger than forecasts and improved for the second month in a row. Forecasts of +1.1% didn’t come near the actual 8.1% gain: year/year though down 24.1%. No need to repeat why. NAR looking for a better economy though the remainder of the year, forecasting 30 year mortgage rates dropping to 6.1% this year (presently 6.82%) and down to 5.4% in 2024. Not a forecast that can be completely believed, a long way off. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects annual existing-home sales to drop 11.1% in 2023 to a total of 4.47 million units before jumping 17.7% in 2024 (5.26 million units). NAR projects new-home sales will fall 3.7% year-over-year in 2023 before growing 19.4% in 2024. Also predicting median existing-home prices will be stable compared to the previous year for most markets — with the national median home price decreasing by 1.6% in 2023, to $380,100, before regaining positive traction of 3.1% in 2024, to $391,800. It estimates median new-home prices will increase by 1.3% in 2023, to $461,000, and increase by 2.8% in 2024, to $474,000, due to higher costs of land and construction materials.
Tomorrow Jan US trade deficit (-$91.0B); Dec Case/Shiller home price index, 60 days old, expected -0.5%, year/year +5.3%; Feb Chicago purchasing mgrs. index (45.0 from 44.3); Feb consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (108.5 from 107.1).
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow released today for Q1 GDP, is 2.8 percent on February 27, up from 2.7 percent on February 24. After this morning’s Advance Census Manufacturing report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -5.3 percent to -5.1 percent. The next GDP nowcast comes Wednesday after Feb manufacturing data.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is up +8 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Rosie the Riveter: January headline Durable Goods Orders were weaker than expected, -4.5% vs. est. of -4.0% but ex Transportation, they were much stronger than expected, 0.7% vs. est. of 0.1%. Non Defense Cap Ex Aircraft were 0.8% vs. est. of 0.0%. The February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index showed continued contraction, dropping down to -13.5
Taking it to the House: The January Pending Home Sales Index increased to a index reading of 82.5 which is a MOM increase of 8.1%. YOY, it dropped by -24.1%
On Deck for Tomorrow: Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, Case Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Housing Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
January pending home sales were stronger than forecasts and improved for the second month in a row. Forecasts of +1.1% didn’t come near the actual 8.1% gain: year/year though down 24.1%. No need to repeat why. NAR looking for a better economy though the remainder of the year, forecasting 30 year mortgage rates dropping to 6.1% this year (presently 6.82%) and down to 5.4% in 2024. Not a forecast that can be completely believed, a long way off. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects annual existing-home sales to drop 11.1% in 2023 to a total of 4.47 million units before jumping 17.7% in 2024 (5.26 million units). NAR projects new-home sales will fall 3.7% year-over-year in 2023 before growing 19.4% in 2024. Also predicting median existing-home prices will be stable compared to the previous year for most markets — with the national median home price decreasing by 1.6% in 2023, to $380,100, before regaining positive traction of 3.1% in 2024, to $391,800. It estimates median new-home prices will increase by 1.3% in 2023, to $461,000, and increase by 2.8% in 2024, to $474,000, due to higher costs of land and construction materials.
Tomorrow Jan US trade deficit (-$91.0B); Dec Case/Shiller home price index, 60 days old, expected -0.5%, year/year +5.3%; Feb Chicago purchasing mgrs. index (45.0 from 44.3); Feb consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (108.5 from 107.1).
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow released today for Q1 GDP, is 2.8 percent on February 27, up from 2.7 percent on February 24. After this morning’s Advance Census Manufacturing report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -5.3 percent to -5.1 percent. The next GDP nowcast comes Wednesday after Feb manufacturing data.
