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Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 February Coupon is down -12 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.
Rosie the Riveter: The January NY Empire Manufacturing Index absolutely cratered, falling to an unheard of -32.9 vs. est. of -4.5
On Deck For Tomorrow: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, NAHB Index, 20Y Bond Auction, Fed Beige Book.
Not much movement in interest rates today ahead of Dec PPI in the morning. The stock market suffered today on worries over earnings as bank earnings were a mixed picture. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reporting steep profit declines. One big takeaway from bank earnings so far? Big banks see a recession coming this year.
US manufacturing is slowing quickly, today the Jan Empire State manufacturing index crumbled, expected to be at -8.1 after declining 11.2 in Dec, the index dropped to -32.9. On Thursday, this week the Jan Philly Fed business index is expected -10.3.
The gang is in Davos Switzerland for the World Economic summit. Nothing we saw of substance. It’s been three years since Davos took its January time slot; the only leader from a Group of Seven country traveling to the event so far was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to the news Scholz said he does not believe Germany is headed for a recession, and that he is in talks with allies about sending tanks to Ukraine.
Comments coming from the ECB today that it, like the Fed will do 50 bps at its next meeting and then think about 25 bp moves after that. That really isn’t news but there isn’t much of it today. One major issue in Europe is energy prices, two months ago because of the Ukraine war was energy prices would drive Europe into deep recession. Since then, crude, and natural gas prices have declined, and the weather has been moderate. German Chancellor Scholz said Germany’s actions to replace Russian gas supplies — including building up gas storage and building LNG ports — have helped limit damage to the economy.
Beside Dec PPI tomorrow which is expected to be very soft; Dec retail sales, Dec Industrial production, Nov business inventories and Jan NAHB housing market index. A lot to digest but PPI leads the parade.
