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Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
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Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
Check the main page for Bryan’s video break down
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
Check the main page for Bryan’s video break down
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
Check the main page for Bryan’s video break down
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
Check the main page for Bryan’s video break down
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
Check the main page for Bryan’s video break down
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
MBS OVERVIEW
4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 July Coupon is currently up +33 BPS.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your backend pricing this week. 1) Inflation Nation, 2) The Talking Fed and 3) Central Bank Palooza
1) Inflation Nation: We get several measures of inflation this week including CPI, PPI, Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment. CPI is expected to show continued upward pressure. PPI is expected to reverse the prior reading of -0.3 and move back into growth territory on a MOM basis but on a YOY basis it is expected to tumble.
2) The Talking Fed: The July FOMC meeting is fast approaching and this week we get their Beige Book and one last barrage of Fed speakers before the media blackout period next week.
3) Central Bank Palooza: After Canada’s policy mistake of pausing, they are expected to increase their interest rate for the second straight meeting. We will also get a rate decision out of New Zealand.
Treasury Dump:
07/11 3 year note
07/12 10 year note
07/13 30 year bond
Check the main page for Bryan’s video break down
10 year note improved today, so too MBSs. The estimates for June CPI to be released on Wednesday are for lower inflation, year/year core CPI expected at 5.0% would be down from 5.3% in May. The lower expectations taking some of the recent bearish down a notch, but more directly the decline in rates today we see as technical than fundamental. The rapid increase in rates last week driven by the increase in belief that the Fed will increase rates at the FOMC meeting on the 26th; the 10 up 23 bps last week, dropped MBS prices 77 bps as traders abandoned the thought of a pause and recognized there will be no reduction in rates this year that had been gaining believers. Technically the rates spiked too much in too short of time frame, that usually leads to consolidation and minor short-term reversals regardless of which market you choose to apply it to.
Three Fed officials today saying the Fed will need to continue increasing rates to get inflation back to 2.0%. “We’ve made a lot of progress in monetary policy, the work that we need to do, over the last year,” Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr told a Bipartisan Policy Center meeting on Monday. “I would say we’re close, but we still have a bit of work to do.” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, “We’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year to really bring inflation back into a path that’s along a sustainable 2% path.” Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, “In order to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%, my view is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further from its current level and then hold there for a while as we accumulate more information on how the economy is evolving.”
Tomorrow the only data, the June NFIB small business optimism index expected 89.8 from 89.4 at 6 am. At 1 pm Treasury will sell $40B of 3 year notes.
The current price gains in MBSs and the decline in the 10 year note rate isn’t a turn in the outlook. To see a major fundamental turn inflation reading on Wednesday and Thursday would have to be shocking in their respective declines.
