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Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
MBS OVERVIEW
4:30 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 March Coupon is up +34 BPS with 30 minutes left to trade.
Domestic Flavor:
Services: The headline February ISM Non Manufacturing PMI (aka services which represent 2/3 of our economy) was stronger than expected, 55.1 vs. est. of 54.5. Prices Paid were also higher than expected, 65.6 vs. est. of 64.5. Employment was 54 vs. est. of 49.8 and New Orders were 62.6 vs. est. of 58.5. Across the board, this is a solid report showing expansion despite the Fed’s prior rate hikes. The Markit S&P Services PMI was 50.6 vs. est. of 50.5.
Across the Pond:
Eurozone: Producer Prices YOY were 15% but that is a huge drop from the prior month’s pace of 24.6%
Yesterday the 10 yield increased 7 bps, Wednesday the note increased 7 bps. Today the 10 -7 bps and back to the level of the breakout from 3.97%. MBS prices increased with the rate markets’ improvement. Everyone happy today, stock indexes railed.
This morning’s ISM manufacturing index at 55.1, essentially the same as in January and showing expansion, so too were the PMI indexes in most of the key world markets. The index, 55.1, business activity 56.3%, new orders +62.6%, employment index 54%, and supplier deliveries 47.6.
The debate remains, 25 bps or 50 bps at the March 22 FOMC policy statement. Interest rates continue to increase with the Fed and other central banks talking tough. Next week Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. What we had today was a cooling of sentiments, whether bullish or bearish. Today the Fed released some info for Congress to digest before the testimonies. “The committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective,”… “More than half of that labor-force shortfall reflects a lower labor-force participation rate because of a wave of retirements beyond what would have been expected given demographic trends,” the report noted. “The remaining shortfall is attributable to slower population growth, which in turn reflects both the higher mortality primarily due to Covid and lower rates of immigration in the first two years of the pandemic.”… “Against the backdrop of a weaker economic outlook, higher interest rates, and elevated uncertainty over the second half of the year, financial vulnerabilities remain moderate overall,” the report said. “Valuation pressures in equity markets increased modestly, and real estate prices continued to be high relative to fundamentals, such as rents, despite a marked slowing in price increases.”
Next Week: Monday factory orders. Tuesday Powell at the Senate Banking Committee, Jan wholesale inventories, Jan consumer credit. Wednesday Powell at the House Financial Services Committee, MBA apps, ADP Feb private jobs, JOLTS job openings, Jan trade deficit. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Fed Beige Book. Friday Feb employment data, Treasury budget for Feb.
This Week: The 10 year note yield increased 2 bps this week. MBS prices increased 22 bps. The DJIA this week +574, NASDAQ +294, S&P +76. Crude oil this week +$2.29, gold +$43.00. The dollar lost ground, the index -0.68 propelling gold and crude higher. Bitcoin fell 865.
I look at today as a technical rebound after a technical rally on Wednesday. Next week’s calendar is full of key data and with Powell’s testimonies there isn’t any reason to anticipate lower rates. Feb employment next Friday, always a monthly key report, is even more so this time with the FOMC meeting in two weeks and inflation data to work through before the meeting.
