May 5, 2023 – Economic News

• May 5, 2023
• realestatelife
• Business & Markets, Fed, Interest Rates, Politics & Economy, Rates, Real Estate, Real Estate Finance, Recession, World News, Your Real Estate Life

MBS OVERVIEW

4:00 EST – Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 May Coupon is down -9 BPS with 60 minutes left to trade.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It’s Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is the Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

April Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) were 253K vs. est. of 179K.

March NFP were revised lower (worse) from 236K all the way down to 165K.

February NFP were revised lower from 326K down to 248K.

The rolling three month average is now 216K.

Wages:

The national average hourly earnings for all employees increased by 16 cents to $33.36

Average hourly earnings MOM was up 0.5% vs. est. of 0.3%.

Average hourly earnings YOY was up 4.4% vs. est. of 4.2%.

Unemployment:

The national Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.4% vs. est. of 3.5%

The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped to 6.6% vs. est. of 6.7%

The Labor Force Participation Rate remained at 62.6%

Headlines today, employment high and potentially will lead to another FF rate increase. Jobs were better than forecasts, but March jobs were revised lower from what was originally reported. The average NFP job gains over the last two months 209K; private jobs, over the last two months 176K, not exactly a major increase. Got to have something to explain why rates increased, we submit the increase today was driven more by the stock indexes as the back and forth moves from safety to risk have dominated this week; stocks up, interest rates up, down and interest rates lower.

Now the Fed officials can speak again, St Louis President James Bullard said he thinks the US central bank can still achieve a soft landing, with inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target without triggering a significant downturn. “Yes, the economy could go into recession, but that’s not the base case,” Bullard told the Economic Club of Minneapolis on Friday. “I think the base case is slow growth, probably a somewhat softer labor market and declining inflation.”….“I think all of you should put most of your weight on that scenario,” he said, adding he did not think a surge in unemployment was needed to cool inflation. Haven’t checked the calendar next week for Fed officials but we can expect more to offer up their opinions. The thing is markets are thinking one way while the Fed must paint a better outlook.

Next Week’s Calendar, more inflation data: Monday nothing but wholesale inventories. Tuesday 3 year note auction. Wednesday MBA mortgage apps, April CPI, 10 year note auction (new 10) April Treasury budget. Thursday weekly jobless claims, April PPI, 30 year bond auction (new 30). Friday U. Of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Next week one of main topics beside economic reports, the debt ceiling will occupy the media, Yellen saying she will run out of cash by June 1st unless the limit is increased or removed. It is very doubtful there will be a budget by June 1st

This Week. The 10 year note this week +1 bp; MBS price on the 6.0 coupon +7 bps. The DJIA -424, NASDAQ +8, S&P -33. Crude oil declined $5.22 as demand is expected to slow with economic slowdowns. Gold increased $28.00 this week even after declining $30.00 today. The dollar continued to decline, the index -0.39, we expect continued weakness. Bitcoin unchanged this week.

AI is all the rage now, is it safe, will it eventually take over and dominate humans? Way back in the day, 1968, well before many were born, there was a great film, 2001 a Space Odyssey. I suggest its worth watching as a good movie and a look into what Stanley Kubrick the producer and director thought. If you can find it, you will enjoy it, (Netflix doesn’t have it) also what Kubrick believed about AI. The film was one of the first in the new technology, known as Cinerama.

The 10 and MBSs were unchanged this week, but the ride was rough and bumpy. Trading risk on would have riled by ulcer. When you have 100% leverage, risk is extreme. Next week CPI and PPI as well as the volatility in equity markets is best to take it day by day.