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Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Market WRAP UP
MBS 6.0 99.77 (0bps)
10yr yield 4.44
Quiet day as expected, minimal risk to floating into next week but Monday could see some pullback in the AM.
Rate sheets should be similar to yesterday, with bonds starting the day out flat. Reprice risk on the day is low, however there seem to be a few “rogue” lenders out there (generally on the wholesale side) who reprice for no real reason at all… so if you’re thinking of locking with one of them (if you work with them you know who they are) then don’t spend too much time thinking about it. Otherwise it should be a quiet day heading into a quiet week… with next week’s Thanksgiving holiday likely to see bonds improve a bit but rate sheets generally don’t. The outlook is still good for rates.
Some other signs that support lower rates (eventually)…
Despite the conflict in the Middle East, oil is showing signs of healty supplies and rising stockpiles and crude prices are on a run of four straight weekly declines – the longest streak since May. Lower oil prices as we head into winter means lower prices at the pump and lower heating oil bills, which is good for the fight to bring inflation down and good for rates.
For loans closing in less than 15 days, cautiously float, but don’t be afraid to lock it if you love it. It looks like things will improve from here, but it may not be much improvement ahead of the holiday, and today could be the best rate sheet is likely to be a good one. That said though, it is very possible that we can see improvement from here, so floating is a good move if watching markets closely.
For loans closing in 15-30 days, float. Loans that have time want to wait and see what the jobs data brings after Thanksgiving (it will all come the first full week in December), as well as the next round of inflation data.
For loans closing in 30+ days, float. The current outlook is that with another jobs report showing a solid but softening labor market, and another CPI report 12/12 right before the Fed meeting concludes on the 13th, these loans have the best shot of seeing even lower rates if data continues to come in favorably.
Technicals:
The UMBS 6.0 coupon is at 99.69, -8bps on the day and close to where we were at yesterday. Despite being at a bit of a loss, mortgage bonds have clearly held above the 100-day moving average which was a technical resistance level, and could now act as a support level.
The 10yr Treasury yield at 4.44, same as yesterday.
