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Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Listen Live
Saturday’s: 9AM 1590 AM/97.9 FM KVTA
Sunday’s: 7AM K-EARTH 101 FM
Rate sheets this morning should be similar to yesterday, maybe a little better in some cases. Most lenders tend to price a bit more conservatively ahead of a holiday, and reprice risk today is moderate because they will be quick to act if bonds lose ground. Mortgage bonds lost a bit of ground on this morning’s unemployment claims coming in a bit lower than forecast, but the durable goods orders were lower than expected. Consumer sentiment comes in at 10am ET, and after that it is likely to be a quiet day as traders take off till Monday. The outlook for rates is still good, no reason to lock anything that isn’t closing soon.
For loans closing in less than 15 days, cautiously float, but don’t be afraid to lock it if you love it. It’s going to be tough for these loans to see any big improvements to pricing from here, but they could see at least slightly better pricing next week. May not be enough to risk floating though, which is why I say to go ahead and lock it if you love it.
For loans closing in 15-30 days, float. Loans that have time want to wait and see what the jobs data brings after Thanksgiving (it will all come the first full week in December), as well as the next round of inflation data on the 12th. The Fed meeting is on the 13th, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, and that could help rates improve.
For loans closing in 30+ days, float. The current outlook is that with another jobs report showing a solid but softening labor market, and another CPI report 12/12 right before the Fed meeting concludes on the 13th, these loans have the best shot of seeing even lower rates if data continues to come in favorably.
Technicals:
The UMBS 6.0 coupon is at 99.94, -8bps on the day but still better than yesterday.
The 10yr Treasury yield at 4.39, not much different than yesterday but likely to test the 100-day moving average of 4.35 soon.
