• November 1, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets will start the day slightly better than yesterday, but be ready for the fireworks. Reprice risk is high today, with lots of action that will send bonds all over the place. The fun has already started as I write this, with the Treasury’s refunding announcement and ADP private payroll data already being released

• October 31, 2023
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• realestatelife

10/31/23 4:47pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.28 (+2bps)10yr yield 4.93 Calm before the storm, tomorrow is a full week’s worth of action packed into a single day. JOLTS, ADP, Treasury numbers, ISM and THEN the Fed mtg and press conference. Today is the day to lock it if afraid of risk – tomorrow could go

• October 30, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.28 (-3bps)10yr yield 4.89 Lots of risk to floating, but rates are at a crossroads this week and if we see strong positive sentiment we have our best shot at seeing rates move lower. However, if the 10yr breaks above 5 with all the labor and econ data and the Fed meeting,

• October 27, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will be much better, reflecting yesterday’s strong showing for bonds. Reprice risk on the day today is low, it SHOULD be a quiet day ahead of the weekend… but of course nothing is guaranteed these days. Generally things should settle down heading into next week ahead of the Fed meeting, and

• October 26, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.23 (+73bps)10yr yield 4.85 Another day of huge gains for bonds with most lenders repricing better, bringing rates back to Tuesday’s levels after seeing them move higher yesterday. Could we keep improving? Will bonds care much about tomorrow AM’s PCE inflation data? Odds are against it, although anything is possible. Rates likely

• October 25, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning waving goodbye to yesterday’s gains, as mortgage bonds start out underwater and the 10yr Treasury yield starts reaching for 5% again. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, mortgage bonds are already deep in trouble and we shouldn’t see them get worse, yet it wouldn’t be the first time that bad

• October 24, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning should be better than yesterday’s AM rate sheets, and similar to the many reprices better that we saw yesterday afternoon. Although mortgage bonds started out with some big losses this morning in overnight trading, by the time pricing comes out we should see most of the losses recovered. Bonds are volatile

• October 23, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 96.97 (+28bps)UMBS 6.5: 99.11 (+22bps)10yr yield 4.85 Surprising late morning rally turned a brutal morning for bonds around, helping rates drop a bit as most lenders repriced better. Current volatility makes it risky to consider floating here, what will happen tomorrow is simply anyone’s guess… and it IS a guess. Lock according

• October 20, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 96.66 (+16bps)10yr yield 4.92 Was nice to catch a break for a day, but floating into Monday hoping it continues is very risky. Next week doesn’t bring a lot of data other than Friday’s PCE inflation data. Still, markets are 100% convinced the Fed will NOT hike at the next meeting, so

• October 19, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets continuing to worsen today, and with lots of Fed speakers we could see reprice risk as the day goes on. Although cautiously floating to start the day is ok, I’ve given up on rates rebounding after the vicious jump we’ve seen in the last week and instead it looks like we will continue