• August 14, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 98.00 (-36bps)10yr yield: 4.20 Mortgage bonds improved through the afternoon, only to give back all the gains. Lenders that repriced better may reprice worse again before day’s end. Rates look likely to creep higher from here, reaching 2023 highs and maybe matching the worst rates we saw last October. They will fall

• August 11, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets are going to be much worse today than yesterday’s AM pricing, and worse than any reprices you saw yesterday as bonds continue to tank. Reprice risk on the day today is moderate, bonds are already taking big losses, but we could see another bout of snowball selling where bad turns to worse. Bonds

• August 10, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 98.50 (-58bps)10yr yield: 4.11 What should have been a quiet day got out of hand quick, with lots of lenders repricing worse (and some twice) Great example today of bond selling triggering more selling… and it wasn’t due to the CPI data, or really much else to point a finger at. Very

• August 7, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UP UMBS 5.5: 98.89 (-18bps) 10yr yield: 4.10 Quiet day, not a lot of risk floating into tomorrow although pricing could slip a little bit. Rates sheets this morning should be better than Friday’s AM rate sheets but likely worse than any reprices better, at least to start the day. Bonds woke up to

• August 4, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rates sheets this morning poised to be about the same as yesterday, unless we see more volatility this morning before lenders set pricing. If the current gains hold we could see slightly better rate sheets, but nothing to get too excited about. One the morning drama plays out reprice risk on the day should be

• August 3, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UP UMBS 5.5: 98.28 (-41bps)10yr yield: 4.18 Tomorrow brings jobs data at 8:30am ET, before rate sheets. Data showing a softening labor market would help bonds improve, but rates don’t have much room to go lower. If the data is not well received by markets, bonds are going to sell off to new terrible

• August 2, 2023
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• realestatelife

Afternoon WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 98.69 (-17bps)10yr yield: 4.09 Although bonds are well off the worst levels of the day, nothing really points to potential for improvement. Rates still look poised to hit new highs for the year, and unless a surprisingly weak labor reading comes in on Friday we don’t have anything on the horizon

• August 1, 2023
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• realestatelife

08/01/23 4:47pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 98.86 (-39bps) 10yr yield: 4.04 No improvement today, leaving the door open for things to get worse. Risks favor locking, little reason to believe that we will see rates move lower. If Friday’s jobs data shows softening to the labor market, we could see rates fall back again… but

• July 31, 2023
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• realestatelife

Wrap up10yr yield: 3.96 Bonds off their best levels of the day, if you saw one of the handful of reprices better today you may see them reprices worse again before the day is over… otherwise not enough movement for most lenders to bother (but some may). Unless holding out for jobs data or CPI

• July 28, 2023
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• realestatelife

07/28/23 4:30pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 5.5: 99.30 (+38bps)10yr yield: 3.96 After a rough ride, mtg bonds about the same levels we ended with on Tuesday. I told you not to panic yesterday, although we won’t yet see the full recovery on most rate sheets unless we get a positive start Monday, bonds have recovered a