• November 7, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning should be similar to yesterday, and reprice risk on the day is moderate. There will be an army of Fed officials out there spewing their opinions today, and it’s already started with Kashkari and Goolsbee. This afternoon we will see the Treasury 3-year note auction, which normally wouldn’t be a thing,

• November 6, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0 98.75 (-39bps)10yr yield 4.65 Rates lost a bit of ground today after last week’s epic performance, but still lower than we were anytime in October. Tomorrow brings a bunch of Fed speakers, but not likely markets are swayed away from the current sentiment that the Fed is done raising rates. May even

• November 3, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rates will dip even further this morning, helped along by jobs data coming in weaker than expected across the board this morning. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, we’re seeing a very big reaction to the jobs data, capping off a week of bond gains that were sorely needed. We could see bonds fluctuate

• November 2, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 100.33 (+42bps)10yr yield 4.66 Despite a handful of reprices worse when bonds lost a bit of ground mid day, it ultimately is a good day for bonds. Tomorrow morning comes the jobs data that could shake things up though, consider locking risk adverse, but we could see rates improve further if markets

• November 1, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets will start the day slightly better than yesterday, but be ready for the fireworks. Reprice risk is high today, with lots of action that will send bonds all over the place. The fun has already started as I write this, with the Treasury’s refunding announcement and ADP private payroll data already being released

• October 31, 2023
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• realestatelife

10/31/23 4:47pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.28 (+2bps)10yr yield 4.93 Calm before the storm, tomorrow is a full week’s worth of action packed into a single day. JOLTS, ADP, Treasury numbers, ISM and THEN the Fed mtg and press conference. Today is the day to lock it if afraid of risk – tomorrow could go

• October 30, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.28 (-3bps)10yr yield 4.89 Lots of risk to floating, but rates are at a crossroads this week and if we see strong positive sentiment we have our best shot at seeing rates move lower. However, if the 10yr breaks above 5 with all the labor and econ data and the Fed meeting,

• October 27, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will be much better, reflecting yesterday’s strong showing for bonds. Reprice risk on the day today is low, it SHOULD be a quiet day ahead of the weekend… but of course nothing is guaranteed these days. Generally things should settle down heading into next week ahead of the Fed meeting, and

• October 26, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.23 (+73bps)10yr yield 4.85 Another day of huge gains for bonds with most lenders repricing better, bringing rates back to Tuesday’s levels after seeing them move higher yesterday. Could we keep improving? Will bonds care much about tomorrow AM’s PCE inflation data? Odds are against it, although anything is possible. Rates likely

• October 25, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning waving goodbye to yesterday’s gains, as mortgage bonds start out underwater and the 10yr Treasury yield starts reaching for 5% again. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, mortgage bonds are already deep in trouble and we shouldn’t see them get worse, yet it wouldn’t be the first time that bad