• October 12, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.94 (-67bps)10yr yield 4.71 Bonds moved much worse today than I would have expected, especially with inflation data coming in as forecast with a decent core number. We can point to some sectors of inflation that could be partly to blame, however, it is more likely this is just normal movement. If

• October 11, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 98.91 (+39bps)10yr yield 4.57 Mortgage bonds continue to improve, setting up tomorrow to have better rates. We could see some volatility when the CPI data comes out at 8:30am ET, but overall it is unlikely we see rates start moving higher again. Unless worried about tomorrow, loans should continue floating. Rate sheets

• October 10, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets will rebound this morning from Friday’s brutal reaction to the jobs data, unfortunately rates being helped by the conflict/war in the Gaza strip/Israel. Reprice risk today is low, it is unlikely we see bonds give back the current gains. We might have seen a shift in sentiment this week anyway, had there not

• October 6, 2023
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• realestatelife

10/06/23 4:30pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.63 (-33bps)10yr yield: 4.80 Mortgage bond recovered quite a bit from worst levels, but the 10yr yield points to where rates will hold. Lots of reprices better, but I would risk floating into next week. Monday is Columbus Day, bond market closed, no text/email. There is risk to floating,

• October 5, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 98.02 (+19bps)10yr yield: 4.71 Thankfully a quiet day. Some may choose to risk floating into tomorrow, but the return will be minimal. Jobs data comes out ahead of pricing, and we could see volatility. Rate sheets this morning shouldn’t be too different than yesterday. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, there’s

• October 4, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 97.84 (+37bps)10yr yield: 4.74 Alls well that ends well? Some late day repricing better, however, still nothing to get too excited about. Rates may drift a little bit lower from here, but it won’t be much, advice remains to lock in, despite potential for possible improvement tomorrow. Tomorrow we get jobless claims

• October 2, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets will be much worse than Friday AM, as bonds continue to fall after a short lived mini rally. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, despite an already weak start we could see bonds continue to worsen which would put lenders in a position to reprice worse. Although it could be argued that

• September 29, 2023
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• realestatelife

Inflation Nation: The August Headline PCE increased by 0.4% on a MOM basis which is DOUBLE the increase in July but it was lower than market expectations of 0.5%. YOY, it was up 3.5% which matched expectations. Core PCE (ex food and energy) increased by 0.1% which was less than market expectations of 0.2%. YOY, it

• September 28, 2023
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• realestatelife

WRAP UPUMBS 6.0: 98.70 (+30bps)10yr yield: 4.58 Bonds had a strong recovery today on some dovish Fed member comments and weak consumer spending data, mainly a correction from being over sold. This is not a reversal, and if you saw reprices better today you should take them, it’s not likely gains continue much tomorrow. After

• September 25, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rates will continue to test the high water mark, and reprice risk today is low. The outlook is that rates will hold near the highs or even creep higher, with zero chance that we see a significant drop in rates anytime soon (“significant”, to me,  means .25% or more). Treasury yields continue to climb, and