• December 5, 2023
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UMBS 6.0 100.80 (+20bps)10yr yield 4.17 Markets betting hard now that the Fed will cut rates by March, pushing yields lower and driving mortgage rates down as weaker JOLTS data today contributed to speculation that the labor market is cooling after running red hot the last couple of years. The big moves though still to

• December 4, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning will be better than Friday’s rate sheet, more in line with any reprices better you got on Friday. Reprice risk today is low, but remember that tomorrow morning brings JOLTS data as well as some ISM data that could shake things up. However, my current “guess” is that rates will improve this

• December 1, 2023
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Rate sheets should be similar to yesterday, and it is unlikely we see much movement on the day making reprice risk low. There will be some ISM manufacturing data that could sway bonds a bit as rate sheets start coming out, but it isn’t something to go nuts worrying about. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will

• November 30, 2023
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Rate sheets may lose little bit of ground from yesterday, but shouldn’t be too far off. Unfortunately there wasn’t a stronger reaction to this morning’s PCE inflation data, which came in right at expectations. Reprice risk on the day is low, bonds lost a bit of ground in overnight trading but could make it up

• November 29, 2023
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11/29/23 MARKET WRAP UP UMBS 6.0 100.55 (+22bps)10yr yield 4.26 Fed futures showing that markets now expect the first Fed rate cut to happen in May, and belief building that it could be sooner. Next week’s labor data could fuel that fire, and December still looks like it will bring the lowest rates of the

• November 28, 2023
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Rate sheets should be about the same as yesterday if the current levels hold (we get consumer confidence data at 10am ET, right around when rate sheets start coming out, and it could shake up bonds and affect pricing). Although mortgage bonds gained ground through the afternoon yesterday, giving a handful of lenders room to

• November 22, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning should be similar to yesterday, maybe a little better in some cases. Most lenders tend to price a bit more conservatively ahead of a holiday, and reprice risk today is moderate because they will be quick to act if bonds lose ground. Mortgage bonds lost a bit of ground on this

• November 21, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning may be a little bit better than yesterday, reflecting a small improvement in mortgage bonds. Reprice risk on the day is low, there is no imminent danger to seeing rates move higher from here. The outlook remains that things should be pretty quiet ahead of the holiday, despite tomorrow morning bringing

• November 17, 2023
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Market WRAP UP MBS 6.0 99.77 (0bps)10yr yield 4.44 Quiet day as expected, minimal risk to floating into next week but Monday could see some pullback in the AM. Rate sheets should be similar to yesterday, with bonds starting the day out flat. Reprice risk on the day is low, however there seem to be

• November 15, 2023
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12/15/23 WRAP UP UMBS 6.0 99.31 (-23bps)10yr yield 4.54 Once the initial activity was over, the day was a snoozefest. It’s likely we see some bouncing around from here, but not any definite moves higher or lower for rates. Loans with time could see improvement after Thanksgiving, with December data and the Fed meeting though,