• November 14, 2023
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• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 99.58 (+93bps)10yr yield 4.45 Bond held the gains all day, mortgage bonds still above the 100-day moving average… a very clear signal that markets think the Fed rate hikes are over. Very little risk to most loans floating into tomorrow, and we could see rate sheets continue to improve with more of the

• November 13, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will continue to see rates creeping higher, and reprice risk is moderate on the day. Rates look likely to move higher this week, unless we get help from inflation data and retail sales data. Talk of how a change in the way health insurance costs are tabulated for the CPI inflation

• November 10, 2023
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• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 98.61 (-3bps)10yr yield 4.62 Mortgage bonds recovered, limiting reprice damage. Still seeing rates creep away from best levels, and supporting the idea to lock for protection. We just can’t know what the CPI data will bring next week, forecasts be damned, and only loans willing to risk waking up to a jump in

• November 8, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning likely the same as yesterday’s AM rate sheets but worse than any reprices better (if you are one of the handful who saw one). Reprice risk on the day is moderate, although there isn’t any relevant economic data coming out today we do have a bunch of Fed members out speaking,

• November 7, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning should be similar to yesterday, and reprice risk on the day is moderate. There will be an army of Fed officials out there spewing their opinions today, and it’s already started with Kashkari and Goolsbee. This afternoon we will see the Treasury 3-year note auction, which normally wouldn’t be a thing,

• November 6, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 6.0 98.75 (-39bps)10yr yield 4.65 Rates lost a bit of ground today after last week’s epic performance, but still lower than we were anytime in October. Tomorrow brings a bunch of Fed speakers, but not likely markets are swayed away from the current sentiment that the Fed is done raising rates. May even

• November 3, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rates will dip even further this morning, helped along by jobs data coming in weaker than expected across the board this morning. Reprice risk on the day is moderate, we’re seeing a very big reaction to the jobs data, capping off a week of bond gains that were sorely needed. We could see bonds fluctuate

• November 2, 2023
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WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 100.33 (+42bps)10yr yield 4.66 Despite a handful of reprices worse when bonds lost a bit of ground mid day, it ultimately is a good day for bonds. Tomorrow morning comes the jobs data that could shake things up though, consider locking risk adverse, but we could see rates improve further if markets

• November 1, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets will start the day slightly better than yesterday, but be ready for the fireworks. Reprice risk is high today, with lots of action that will send bonds all over the place. The fun has already started as I write this, with the Treasury’s refunding announcement and ADP private payroll data already being released

• October 31, 2023
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• realestatelife

10/31/23 4:47pm ET WRAP UPUMBS 6.5: 99.28 (+2bps)10yr yield 4.93 Calm before the storm, tomorrow is a full week’s worth of action packed into a single day. JOLTS, ADP, Treasury numbers, ISM and THEN the Fed mtg and press conference. Today is the day to lock it if afraid of risk – tomorrow could go