• December 13, 2023
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• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 101.45 (+66 bps)10yr yield 4.02 Despite labor market and inflation data, the Fed gave its clearest signal yet that it is done hiking rates, with Powell saying as much (but still leaving himself an out). Markets now pricing in 65% chance of cut in March, helping rates improve. Tough to expect more improvement

• December 12, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning should be similar or just a smidge better than yesterday, as this morning’s inflation data comes in exactly at expectations. However, coming in at expectations is not enough to spark a rally and see better pricing. Reprice risk on the day is low, bonds aren’t likely to start selling off, but

• December 11, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning will be similar to Friday and maybe a bit better for some. Reprice risk on the day is low, although we will see a 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm Eastern today. It is tomorrow’s CPI inflation data and Wednesday’s Fed meeting that will decide the near future of rates. The outlook

• December 9, 2023
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• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 100.72 (-13bps)10yr yield 4.23 Although this mornings jobs data was a bust for better rates, it didn’t hurt things much. There is still hope that next weeks inflation data and Fed meeting could see rates move a bit lower, but this is the first sign that we may see this rally losing steam.

• December 7, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning likely to be similar to yesterday, despite the gains bonds made through the day on Wednesday, losing ground this morning to a cry of “Godzilla!!!” as Japan unleashed a different monster that stomped on bonds. Not anything to get worked up about though, just that the yen surged as speculation grew

• December 6, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets this morning likely to be similar to yesterday, which is to say some of the best pricing we’ve seen in months. However, we could see rates improve further over the coming days, as global markets bet on central banks cutting rates sooner than was expected a few months ago. Reprice risk on the

• December 5, 2023
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• realestatelife

UMBS 6.0 100.80 (+20bps)10yr yield 4.17 Markets betting hard now that the Fed will cut rates by March, pushing yields lower and driving mortgage rates down as weaker JOLTS data today contributed to speculation that the labor market is cooling after running red hot the last couple of years. The big moves though still to

• December 4, 2023
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Rate sheets this morning will be better than Friday’s rate sheet, more in line with any reprices better you got on Friday. Reprice risk today is low, but remember that tomorrow morning brings JOLTS data as well as some ISM data that could shake things up. However, my current “guess” is that rates will improve this

• December 1, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets should be similar to yesterday, and it is unlikely we see much movement on the day making reprice risk low. There will be some ISM manufacturing data that could sway bonds a bit as rate sheets start coming out, but it isn’t something to go nuts worrying about. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will

• November 30, 2023
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• realestatelife

Rate sheets may lose little bit of ground from yesterday, but shouldn’t be too far off. Unfortunately there wasn’t a stronger reaction to this morning’s PCE inflation data, which came in right at expectations. Reprice risk on the day is low, bonds lost a bit of ground in overnight trading but could make it up